Economic Review 7 August

Economic data included continued strength in manufacturing and services PMI data, even though down from prior levels, and continued high inflation pressure readings. Housing data was weak, seen in lower housing starts and readings of homebuilder sentiment. Sentiment was little changed, although it continued to hover at multi-decade trough levels.

Equities were mixed around the world, with gains in U.S. small cap as a bright spot, offset by declines in some AI names and foreign equities. Bonds fared positively as interest rates continued to pull back from recent highs. Commodities were mixed, with higher energy along with Middle East tensions continuing.

Risk management, the Fed’s main rationale in September, points to another rate hike next week. Markets put the odds at one in five.