Economic Review 20 February 2024

Economic data included no policy action by the Federal Reserve, U.S. GDP coming in strong for Q3, as well as gains in personal income/spending, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and higher home prices. However, new home sales fell, in a continued stretch of low volume.

Equities were mixed to end the month, with the U.S. technology group pulling most indexes, as did Brazil. Bonds fared positively, as yields ticked down for the most part. Commodities declined, with little change in energy last week.

At the October meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted to keep the Fed funds policy rate unchanged at the current range of 3.75-4.00%. In a 10-2 vote, there were dissents from governors Cook and Hammack, who each preferred a rate hike of a quarter-point.

The formal statement remained brief, upgrading economic activity from “solid” to “strong”. Last month’s comment about returning to target faster was tweaked to include the “accumulation of more information” to help decide the policy stance. In terms of inflation, it remained “elevated,” and job gains have “kept pace with the workforce.”