Economic Review 26 October 2026
Economic data included continued strength in manufacturing and services PMI data, even though down from prior levels, and continued high inflation pressure readings. Housing data was weak, seen in lower housing starts and readings of homebuilder sentiment. Sentiment was little changed, although it continued to hover at multi-decade trough levels.
Equities were mixed around the world, with gains in U.S. small cap as a bright spot, offset by declines in some AI names and foreign equities. Bonds fared positively as interest rates continued to pull back from recent highs. Commodities were mixed, with higher energy along with Middle East tensions continuing.
What will it take to be confident about inflation?
Risk management, the Fed’s main rationale in September, points to another rate hike next week. Markets put the odds at one in five.
Economic Review 19 October 2026
Economic data included both producer and consumer price inflation coming in stronger than expected, in keeping with a spike in gasoline and related petroleum pricing last month. Retail sales and existing home sales also saw gains, along with low jobless claims, all pointing to decent economic conditions.
Equities fell back globally with again rising oil prices and some concerns over AI profitability and financing weighing on buyer sentiment. Bonds fared well as yields came back down, despite reports showing continued high inflation. Commodities were mixed, with gains in energy due to geopolitics, offset by declines in metals and grains.
Economic Review 12 October 2026
Economic data included services PMI falling a bit, but remaining solidly in expansion. Consumer sentiment remained weak, particularly due to sensitivity to high inflation.
Equities were mixed, with U.S. stocks higher while international stocks fell back. Bonds saw a better week as Treasury yields stabilized across the yield curve. Commodities were higher in energy and metals.
Economic Review 5 October 2026
Economic data included both Q1 and Q2 U.S. GDP growth data being revised upward. Personal income and spending rose, at a pace faster than inflation. Manufacturing survey data pulled back a bit, but remained solidly expansionary, as was construction spending. Home price appreciation continued to flatten, while the employment situation report showed weaker job growth than expected.
Stocks were mixed around the world, with little new geopolitical news, but continued rising interest rates weighing on sentiment. Bonds were down, along with those same yield changes. Commodities fell back, with little Middle East news, and some relief in various supply concerns.
Economic Review 28 September 2026
Economic data included gains in S&P manufacturing and services PMI, further into expansion, and a rise in new home sales, while durable goods orders and jobless claims remained stable.
Equities gained around the world last week generally, with technology optimism outweighing concerns about inflation and the resulting higher yields. Bonds fared negatively due to those influences of higher rates. Commodity prices were pulled down by energy and precious metals, as hope for a Middle East solution rose.
Economic Review 21 September 2026
Last week’s news was highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates a bit, for the first time in three years. Other data included positive results for retail sales and jobless claims, flattish industrial production, and declines in housing starts.
Stocks were mixed, but mostly down for the week, with higher yields and energy prices weighing on sentiment. Bonds were also mixed, as several central banks hiked short-term rates. Commodities saw gains in metals, while energy prices were stable.
Fed Note 16 September 2026
At the September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted to raise the Fed funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike in three years. There were no dissents.
Costly Medicine by Claudia Sahm 14 September
The Fed is likely to raise rates on Wednesday. Here’s what a hike can do, what it can’t, and why the explanation matters as much as the decision.
Economic Review 14 September 2026
On a shortened Labor Day week, economic data included continued rises in both consumer and producer price inflation, driven by August’s spikes in fuel prices. Existing home sales declined, as did consumer sentiment.
Equities fell across the board globally last week, due to geopolitical tensions, resulting inflation, and higher yields. Bonds pulled back to the same spike in interest rates. Commodities were mixed, with another sharp rise in oil prices, and weakness elsewhere.